NERTO Research Project Title:
Analysis Of Uncertainty in Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts
NERTO Outcomes:
- Learned to wrangle different types of data from different sources, using multiple coding languages -Learned about operational hydrologic models -Learned about ensemble forecasting datasets and the statistics associated with them -learned about gridded data in more depth -presented at a conference and wrote a general audience paper for the conference's associated publication Results: -evaluated the performance of experimental, downscaled ensemble datasets, and the resulting performance of the NWM when run with those ensemble datasets
Value of NERTO to the Line Office:
NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), and the Physical Sciences Laboratory (PSL) specifically, have benefited a great deal from Carolien Mossel’s NERTO work. Far exceeding the expectations of a standard 12-week NERTO position, this NERTO project has produced high-quality, complex, thoughtful analysis of datasets and concepts central to OAR and PSL’s hydrometeorological research goals and research foci. Ms. Mossel has produced valuable analysis and data manipulation leading to software that will continue to benefit others in OAR and beyond, and has contributed significantly to a large collaborative team project which will ultimately be summarized in a peer-reviewed publication and a presentation to others across NOAA who can similarly benefit from this work. This research addresses current questions surrounding the skill and utility of several NOAA operational models (e.g., the National Water Model, GEFS, NLDAS, and others), and advances our understanding of the error characteristics of prototype ensemble hydrometeorological prediction products which can be further developed and lead to ongoing future forecast improvements. The value and impacts of this internship and ensuing research will outlast the official NERTO position via ongoing and future contributions to NOAA seminars, conference presentations, and peer-reviewed manuscripts.
NERTO Skills:
General data aquisition skills- including writing ftp scripts to automatically download data through putty.
