ESSIC Seminar: Investigation of Decreasing Caribbean Precipitation by CESSRST Fellow Equisha Glenn
Event Date: Tuesday December 11, 2018, 12:00-1:00 PM ESSIC Conference Room 4102, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740
Title: Investigation of Decreasing Caribbean Precipitation During a Regional, Warming Sea-Surface Temperature Period, 1982 - 2017
Speaker: Equisha Glenn
Date: Tuesday December 11, 2018, 12:00-1:00 PM
Location: ESSIC Conference Room 4102, 5825 University Research Ct, College Park, MD 20740
The City College of New YorkThis study investigates precipitation trends during the sea-surface temperature (SST) warming period (1982 – 2017) that has been detected in the Intra-Americas Region (IAR), the region including the Caribbean and parts of North America, South America, Mexico, and Central America. A warming trend of SSTs has been detected in the IAR for the past 36 years (1982-2017), which could have potential implications for precipitation variation within the Caribbean and the surrounding region. The IAR experiences bimodal precipitation periods which define the seasons – the Early Rainfall Season (ERS) from April to June, the Late Rainfall Season (LRS) from August to November and the Dry Season from December to March. Negative trends (drying) were observed for annual, ERS, and DS regionally accumulated rainfall and a positive trend for the LRS, but only the DS trend was determined to be statistically significant for the 36-year period. The Dry Season reflects the steepest decreasing trends associated with statistically significant p-values at the 95% significance level. Spatial analyses show the southern part of the region has experienced an increase in annual and seasonal rainfall, however, only with high statistical significance in some parts of the IAR during the LRS. In addition, precipitation also reflects high, positive correlations with SSTs in the southern part of the IAR with high statistical significance. Results from a linear model, using principal components (PCs) determined that SSTs explain the interannual variability and trend observed for precipitation during the 1982-2017 period, with the annual model yielding the highest adjusted R2 (0.706) when the first three PCs (modes) are considered. The equivalent models for each season varied in significance of PCs for the ERS (0.359), LRS (0.699), and DS (0.484). The link between warming SSTs and rainfall during the same period is demonstrated on an annual mode, however, other climate phenomena during individual seasons reduce the impact of warmer SST conditions. Other possible drivers of the decreasing precipitation trends are investigated which include vertical wind shear and convection trends for the same period.
Biography:
Equisha Glenn is a NOAA-CREST Scholar, graduate research fellow at the City College of New York. She is a civil engineering doctoral candidate with a focus on water resources and environmental engineering. Equisha is interning with NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate Prediction (NCWCP) and CICS with her mentor Tom Smith. She has completed an internship here previously, when she began and has continued the research she started regarding the climate trends in the Caribbean and the impacts on surrounding regions. She is interested in understanding the drivers of Caribbean climate and the impacts on water resources to help develop water management strategies to mitigate impacts of climate changes on water availability.
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