NERTO Synopsis: The student will work under the guidance of Alexander Tardy at the NOAA/NWS San Diego office on a project aimed at assessing the impacts of changes in evapotranspiration (ET) on subseasonal to multi-year forecasting, and perform societal benefit analysis on grapevine agricultural productivity in Southern California. The project will employ observational data analysis and high-resolution modeling techniques to estimate changes in air temperature, wind, and precipitation to ultimately project potential impacts to ET and one of the staple crop productivity in the region. A crucial component of the project is the verification of changes in the above-mentioned meteorological parameters over the past 30 years in the study region, which will serve as benchmarks for predicting sub-seasonal to multi-year forecasts. To accomplish this, the student will work under the guidance of Dr. Tardy to process and analyze historical climate data, to investigate relationships between climate change and variability on ET and societal benefit analysis on high crop impacts. His expertise on the region’s microclimates and experience on local observational data processing and analysis will be fundamental for the student’s success and overall project completion.

We expect that changes in air temperature, wind, and precipitation patterns will affect ET rates and reduce crop productivity, as grapevines are especially susceptible to changes in temperature.