Cohort Level: Cohort - II

Career Goal: I hope to continue my education and receive my PhD from the same department, working with my current advisor, Fernando De Sales.

Expected Graduation Date: May 24, 2019

Degree: M.S Geography

Research Title: Climate Change Impacts on Winegrowing Regions in Southern California: From the Perspective of a Regional Climate Model

Research Synopsis: This project will use high-resolution regional climate modeling and observational data analysis to estimate winegrape crop suitability changes for Southern California in the near future and the potential effects of global warming on crop yield. Winegrape represents an economically valuable perennial crop and is very sensitive to changes in temperature. Therefore, determining how climate change can impact crop suitability and potential yield is key. Results from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) land surface model will be used to determine past and future suitability, based on climatic indices relevant to winegrape crop. Model simulations will be completed for two periods: 1983-2012 and 2021-2070. The later period will represent a future with increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). Global warming impacts on crop yield will be determined through regression analysis of winegrape yield and long-term changes in temperature and precipitation. This project will provide high-resolution climate data for Southern California and provide future regional suitability analysis for an economically valuable crop. Additionally, information from climate analyses can be used in vulnerability assessments that can inform decision-making to guarantee local resilience to climate change impacts.